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The trough dates for these indicators are: Previously the longest postwar recessions were those of and , both of which lasted 16 months. Apart from a random statistical discrepancy, real GDI satisfies that equality while real personal income does not. The committee concluded that strong growth in both real GDP and real GDI in the fourth quarter of ruled out the possibility that the trough occurred later than the third quarter. There is no fixed rule about what weights the committee assigns to the various indicators, or about what other measures contribute information to the process. An Excel spreadsheet containing the data and the figures for the indicators of economic activity considered by the committee is available at that page as well. The committee designated June as the month of the trough based on several monthly indicators. These include a measure of monthly GDP that has been developed by the private forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisers, measures of monthly GDP and GDI that have been developed by two members of the committee in independent research James Stock and Mark Watson, available here , real personal income excluding transfers, the payroll and household measures of total employment, and aggregate hours of work in the total economy. The committee noted that in the most recent data, for the second quarter of , the average of real GDP and real GDI was 3. The second was that real GDI is a more comprehensive measure of income than real personal income less transfers, as it includes additional sources of income such as undistributed corporate profits.
Second, in previous business cycles, aggregate hours and employment have frequently reached their troughs later than the NBER's trough date. The trough dates for these indicators are: The second was that real GDI is a more comprehensive measure of income than real personal income less transfers, as it includes additional sources of income such as undistributed corporate profits. The current members of the Business Cycle Dating Committee are: In , the NBER trough date is 6 months before the trough in payroll employment. In both the and cycles, household employment also reached its trough later than the NBER trough date. The committee concluded that strong growth in both real GDP and real GDI in the fourth quarter of ruled out the possibility that the trough occurred later than the third quarter. David Romer, University of California, Berkeley, is on leave from the committee and did not participate in its deliberations. Previously the longest postwar recessions were those of and , both of which lasted 16 months. Economic activity is typically below normal in the early stages of an expansion, and it sometimes remains so well into the expansion. The committee's use of income-side measures, notably real GDI, is based on the accounting principle that the value of output equals the sum of the incomes that arise from producing the output. The committee decided that any future downturn of the economy would be a new recession and not a continuation of the recession that began in December The committee concluded that the behavior of the quarterly series for real GDP and GDI indicates that the trough occurred in mid Rather, the committee determined only that the recession ended and a recovery began in that month. At its meeting, the committee determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U. In determining that a trough occurred in June , the committee did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity. The committee noted that in the most recent data, for the second quarter of , the average of real GDP and real GDI was 3. The trough marks the end of the declining phase and the start of the rising phase of the business cycle. The committee believes that these quarterly measures of the real volume of output across the entire economy are the most reliable measures of economic activity. The committee places less emphasis on monthly data series for industrial production and manufacturing-trade sales, because these refer to particular sectors of the economy. Further, macroeconomic indicators are subject to substantial revisions and measurement error. It places particular emphasis on measures that refer to the total economy rather than to particular sectors. The basis for this decision was the length and strength of the recovery to date. There is no fixed rule about what weights the committee assigns to the various indicators, or about what other measures contribute information to the process. The trough marks the end of the recession that began in December and the beginning of an expansion. Real GDP reached its low point in the second quarter of , while the value of real GDI was essentially identical in the second and third quarters of The recession lasted 18 months, which makes it the longest of any recession since World War II.
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